NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring PEPP NEV
Points 63.5 75.4
Total Points   138.8
Points From 2-Pointers 31.2 38.1
Points From 3-Pointers 18.3 18.6
Points From Free Throws 13.9 18.6
Shooting PEPP NEV
Field Goals Made 21.7 25.3
Field Goals Attempted 54.1 50.3
Field Goal % 40.2% 50.3%
2 Pointers Made 15.6 19.1
2 Pointers Attempted 35.5 35.1
2 Point Shooting % 44.0% 54.3%
3 Pointers Made 6.1 6.2
3 Pointers Attempted 18.7 15.1
3 Point Shooting % 32.8% 41.0%
Free Throws Made 13.9 18.6
Free Throws Attempted 19.9 26.1
Free Throw % 69.8% 71.2%
Ball Control PEPP NEV
Rebounds 31.3 34.0
Rebounds - Defensive 22.2 26.7
Rebounds - Offensive 9.1 7.3
Turnovers 10.8 9.4
Blocked Shots 1.9 2.6
Steals 3.8 5.7
Fouls 19.4 16.9

Playing Style Advantage: Pepperdine

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats PEPP NEV
Total Possessions 68.2
Effective Scoring Chances 66.5 66.2
% of Possessions with PEPP NEV
2 Point Attempt 45.3% 46.0%
3 Point Attempt 23.8% 19.8%
Player Fouled 24.8% 28.4%
Turnover 15.8% 13.7%
Opponent Steal 8.4% 5.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken PEPP NEV
Shot Blocked 5.2% 3.5%
Offensive Rebound 25.4% 24.9%