NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring COOK NCAT
Points 71.7 67.5
Total Points   139.2
Points From 2-Pointers 41.5 30.8
Points From 3-Pointers 15.9 15.9
Points From Free Throws 14.3 20.8
Shooting COOK NCAT
Field Goals Made 26.1 20.7
Field Goals Attempted 60.0 52.1
Field Goal % 43.4% 39.7%
2 Pointers Made 20.8 15.4
2 Pointers Attempted 43.7 33.8
2 Point Shooting % 47.5% 45.5%
3 Pointers Made 5.3 5.3
3 Pointers Attempted 16.3 18.3
3 Point Shooting % 32.5% 29.1%
Free Throws Made 14.3 20.8
Free Throws Attempted 18.8 29.4
Free Throw % 75.9% 70.8%
Ball Control COOK NCAT
Rebounds 38.0 34.6
Rebounds - Defensive 27.2 25.6
Rebounds - Offensive 10.8 9.0
Turnovers 10.2 10.7
Blocked Shots 3.8 2.5
Steals 6.9 5.9
Fouls 18.5 13.0

Playing Style Advantage: NC A&T

Expected Effect: +0.7 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats COOK NCAT
Total Possessions 71.3
Effective Scoring Chances 71.9 69.7
% of Possessions with COOK NCAT
2 Point Attempt 52.6% 41.3%
3 Point Attempt 19.6% 22.4%
Player Fouled 18.3% 26.0%
Turnover 14.3% 15.0%
Opponent Steal 8.2% 9.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken COOK NCAT
Shot Blocked 4.8% 6.3%
Offensive Rebound 29.6% 24.9%