NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ACU CARK
Points 77.0 68.8
Total Points   145.8
Points From 2-Pointers 37.6 35.0
Points From 3-Pointers 21.7 20.0
Points From Free Throws 17.8 13.8
Shooting ACU CARK
Field Goals Made 26.0 24.2
Field Goals Attempted 58.3 56.2
Field Goal % 44.6% 43.0%
2 Pointers Made 18.8 17.5
2 Pointers Attempted 39.9 37.0
2 Point Shooting % 47.2% 47.3%
3 Pointers Made 7.2 6.7
3 Pointers Attempted 18.4 19.1
3 Point Shooting % 39.2% 34.8%
Free Throws Made 17.8 13.8
Free Throws Attempted 24.2 18.3
Free Throw % 73.4% 75.3%
Ball Control ACU CARK
Rebounds 34.9 35.6
Rebounds - Defensive 25.6 26.6
Rebounds - Offensive 9.3 9.0
Turnovers 9.8 14.2
Blocked Shots 1.9 2.9
Steals 8.7 5.7
Fouls 15.1 16.9

Playing Style Advantage: Abl Christian

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ACU CARK
Total Possessions 73.4
Effective Scoring Chances 72.9 68.2
% of Possessions with ACU CARK
2 Point Attempt 47.6% 44.5%
3 Point Attempt 21.9% 23.0%
Player Fouled 23.0% 20.6%
Turnover 13.3% 19.4%
Opponent Steal 7.8% 11.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken ACU CARK
Shot Blocked 5.3% 3.3%
Offensive Rebound 26.0% 26.1%