NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring COOK IDST
Points 65.3 71.8
Total Points   137.1
Points From 2-Pointers 38.0 33.7
Points From 3-Pointers 12.1 18.7
Points From Free Throws 15.2 19.4
Shooting COOK IDST
Field Goals Made 23.0 23.1
Field Goals Attempted 54.5 50.6
Field Goal % 42.3% 45.6%
2 Pointers Made 19.0 16.8
2 Pointers Attempted 43.0 31.5
2 Point Shooting % 44.2% 53.4%
3 Pointers Made 4.0 6.2
3 Pointers Attempted 11.5 19.0
3 Point Shooting % 35.1% 32.8%
Free Throws Made 15.2 19.4
Free Throws Attempted 20.0 27.7
Free Throw % 75.9% 70.0%
Ball Control COOK IDST
Rebounds 30.7 35.7
Rebounds - Defensive 21.9 25.2
Rebounds - Offensive 8.7 10.4
Turnovers 11.8 12.3
Blocked Shots 2.7 3.2
Steals 8.3 7.2
Fouls 19.9 14.7

Playing Style Advantage: Idaho St

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats COOK IDST
Total Possessions 69.9
Effective Scoring Chances 66.8 68.0
% of Possessions with COOK IDST
2 Point Attempt 53.8% 38.7%
3 Point Attempt 14.4% 23.4%
Player Fouled 21.0% 28.4%
Turnover 16.9% 17.6%
Opponent Steal 10.3% 11.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken COOK IDST
Shot Blocked 6.4% 5.0%
Offensive Rebound 25.7% 32.2%