NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ME UNH
Points 70.0 68.7
Total Points   138.7
Points From 2-Pointers 42.4 35.2
Points From 3-Pointers 16.9 20.3
Points From Free Throws 10.8 13.2
Shooting ME UNH
Field Goals Made 26.8 24.4
Field Goals Attempted 58.6 57.5
Field Goal % 45.7% 42.4%
2 Pointers Made 21.2 17.6
2 Pointers Attempted 38.2 35.3
2 Point Shooting % 55.5% 49.9%
3 Pointers Made 5.6 6.8
3 Pointers Attempted 20.4 22.3
3 Point Shooting % 27.5% 30.4%
Free Throws Made 10.8 13.2
Free Throws Attempted 15.1 17.3
Free Throw % 71.4% 76.0%
Ball Control ME UNH
Rebounds 33.9 35.4
Rebounds - Defensive 27.4 27.7
Rebounds - Offensive 6.5 7.7
Turnovers 11.3 12.7
Blocked Shots 4.0 1.7
Steals 8.8 6.6
Fouls 14.7 12.8

Playing Style Advantage: Maine

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ME UNH
Total Possessions 72.8
Effective Scoring Chances 68.0 67.8
% of Possessions with ME UNH
2 Point Attempt 47.7% 42.9%
3 Point Attempt 25.6% 27.1%
Player Fouled 17.6% 20.2%
Turnover 15.5% 17.4%
Opponent Steal 9.1% 12.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken ME UNH
Shot Blocked 3.1% 6.9%
Offensive Rebound 19.1% 21.9%