NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring VILL CREI
Points 67.1 74.9
Total Points   142.0
Points From 2-Pointers 37.3 29.2
Points From 3-Pointers 22.5 35.8
Points From Free Throws 7.3 9.8
Shooting VILL CREI
Field Goals Made 26.2 26.6
Field Goals Attempted 64.6 58.5
Field Goal % 40.5% 45.4%
2 Pointers Made 18.7 14.6
2 Pointers Attempted 41.9 25.1
2 Point Shooting % 44.5% 58.2%
3 Pointers Made 7.5 11.9
3 Pointers Attempted 22.7 33.4
3 Point Shooting % 33.2% 35.8%
Free Throws Made 7.3 9.8
Free Throws Attempted 9.1 12.2
Free Throw % 79.7% 80.8%
Ball Control VILL CREI
Rebounds 33.6 38.2
Rebounds - Defensive 26.8 32.0
Rebounds - Offensive 6.8 6.2
Turnovers 6.1 8.9
Blocked Shots 2.1 4.0
Steals 4.9 3.2
Fouls 12.9 9.2

Playing Style Advantage: Villanova

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats VILL CREI
Total Possessions 68.5
Effective Scoring Chances 69.2 65.8
% of Possessions with VILL CREI
2 Point Attempt 54.5% 33.2%
3 Point Attempt 29.4% 44.2%
Player Fouled 13.5% 18.8%
Turnover 9.0% 13.0%
Opponent Steal 4.6% 7.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken VILL CREI
Shot Blocked 6.9% 3.3%
Offensive Rebound 17.6% 18.9%