NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NW ILL
Points 73.3 81.1
Total Points   154.4
Points From 2-Pointers 39.9 39.2
Points From 3-Pointers 21.1 23.3
Points From Free Throws 12.3 18.6
Shooting NW ILL
Field Goals Made 27.0 27.4
Field Goals Attempted 61.8 54.3
Field Goal % 43.7% 50.4%
2 Pointers Made 20.0 19.6
2 Pointers Attempted 44.2 33.2
2 Point Shooting % 45.2% 59.0%
3 Pointers Made 7.0 7.8
3 Pointers Attempted 17.6 21.1
3 Point Shooting % 39.8% 36.9%
Free Throws Made 12.3 18.6
Free Throws Attempted 16.3 25.2
Free Throw % 75.6% 73.8%
Ball Control NW ILL
Rebounds 29.3 38.0
Rebounds - Defensive 21.6 28.9
Rebounds - Offensive 7.7 9.1
Turnovers 6.3 9.1
Blocked Shots 2.9 3.8
Steals 5.2 3.4
Fouls 16.8 13.7

Playing Style Advantage: Illinois

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NW ILL
Total Possessions 69.4
Effective Scoring Chances 70.8 69.4
% of Possessions with NW ILL
2 Point Attempt 56.1% 41.7%
3 Point Attempt 22.4% 26.4%
Player Fouled 19.8% 24.2%
Turnover 9.1% 13.0%
Opponent Steal 4.9% 7.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken NW ILL
Shot Blocked 7.1% 4.8%
Offensive Rebound 21.1% 29.6%