NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring VILL PROV
Points 66.2 66.1
Total Points   132.3
Points From 2-Pointers 28.9 26.4
Points From 3-Pointers 25.4 28.6
Points From Free Throws 11.9 11.1
Shooting VILL PROV
Field Goals Made 22.9 22.7
Field Goals Attempted 57.4 55.9
Field Goal % 39.9% 40.7%
2 Pointers Made 14.4 13.2
2 Pointers Attempted 32.7 25.4
2 Point Shooting % 44.2% 52.0%
3 Pointers Made 8.5 9.5
3 Pointers Attempted 24.7 30.5
3 Point Shooting % 34.2% 31.2%
Free Throws Made 11.9 11.1
Free Throws Attempted 14.9 14.9
Free Throw % 79.7% 74.5%
Ball Control VILL PROV
Rebounds 34.7 36.0
Rebounds - Defensive 28.0 28.9
Rebounds - Offensive 6.7 7.2
Turnovers 9.2 10.2
Blocked Shots 2.2 4.5
Steals 5.7 5.3
Fouls 14.7 12.9

Playing Style Advantage: Villanova

Expected Effect: +0.7 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats VILL PROV
Total Possessions 68.1
Effective Scoring Chances 65.7 65.1
% of Possessions with VILL PROV
2 Point Attempt 42.6% 33.3%
3 Point Attempt 32.3% 40.0%
Player Fouled 18.9% 21.5%
Turnover 13.5% 15.0%
Opponent Steal 7.8% 8.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken VILL PROV
Shot Blocked 8.1% 3.8%
Offensive Rebound 19.0% 20.4%