NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ACU PEAY
Points 75.5 77.1
Total Points   152.6
Points From 2-Pointers 42.4 42.3
Points From 3-Pointers 14.2 19.7
Points From Free Throws 18.9 15.1
Shooting ACU PEAY
Field Goals Made 25.9 27.7
Field Goals Attempted 54.6 57.6
Field Goal % 47.5% 48.2%
2 Pointers Made 21.2 21.2
2 Pointers Attempted 40.9 39.4
2 Point Shooting % 51.9% 53.6%
3 Pointers Made 4.7 6.6
3 Pointers Attempted 13.7 18.1
3 Point Shooting % 34.4% 36.3%
Free Throws Made 18.9 15.1
Free Throws Attempted 25.7 21.3
Free Throw % 73.4% 70.9%
Ball Control ACU PEAY
Rebounds 32.7 33.4
Rebounds - Defensive 23.9 23.8
Rebounds - Offensive 8.8 9.6
Turnovers 9.7 9.8
Blocked Shots 2.1 2.4
Steals 4.9 5.7
Fouls 16.0 17.7

Playing Style Advantage: Austin Peay

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ACU PEAY
Total Possessions 71.1
Effective Scoring Chances 70.3 70.8
% of Possessions with ACU PEAY
2 Point Attempt 50.5% 48.4%
3 Point Attempt 17.0% 22.2%
Player Fouled 24.9% 22.5%
Turnover 13.6% 13.8%
Opponent Steal 8.0% 6.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken ACU PEAY
Shot Blocked 4.3% 3.9%
Offensive Rebound 27.0% 28.6%