NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ARIZ IND
Points 82.0 70.1
Total Points   152.2
Points From 2-Pointers 40.8 42.4
Points From 3-Pointers 24.5 16.1
Points From Free Throws 16.7 11.7
Shooting ARIZ IND
Field Goals Made 28.6 26.5
Field Goals Attempted 64.3 59.4
Field Goal % 44.4% 44.7%
2 Pointers Made 20.4 21.2
2 Pointers Attempted 41.2 41.9
2 Point Shooting % 49.5% 50.5%
3 Pointers Made 8.2 5.4
3 Pointers Attempted 23.1 17.5
3 Point Shooting % 35.3% 30.7%
Free Throws Made 16.7 11.7
Free Throws Attempted 23.5 17.7
Free Throw % 71.0% 65.9%
Ball Control ARIZ IND
Rebounds 41.8 33.7
Rebounds - Defensive 28.6 26.3
Rebounds - Offensive 13.2 7.5
Turnovers 9.3 12.3
Blocked Shots 3.5 3.7
Steals 8.9 4.8
Fouls 15.9 15.8

Playing Style Advantage: Indiana

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ARIZ IND
Total Possessions 74.8
Effective Scoring Chances 78.7 70.0
% of Possessions with ARIZ IND
2 Point Attempt 46.0% 50.1%
3 Point Attempt 25.9% 20.9%
Player Fouled 21.1% 21.2%
Turnover 12.5% 16.4%
Opponent Steal 6.4% 11.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken ARIZ IND
Shot Blocked 6.3% 5.6%
Offensive Rebound 33.4% 20.7%