NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UK KU
Points 82.1 79.4
Total Points   161.5
Points From 2-Pointers 35.6 44.7
Points From 3-Pointers 32.2 19.7
Points From Free Throws 14.3 15.0
Shooting UK KU
Field Goals Made 28.5 28.9
Field Goals Attempted 63.7 62.9
Field Goal % 44.8% 45.9%
2 Pointers Made 17.8 22.3
2 Pointers Attempted 37.9 43.7
2 Point Shooting % 47.0% 51.2%
3 Pointers Made 10.7 6.6
3 Pointers Attempted 25.8 19.3
3 Point Shooting % 41.6% 34.0%
Free Throws Made 14.3 15.0
Free Throws Attempted 18.3 21.0
Free Throw % 78.2% 71.4%
Ball Control UK KU
Rebounds 36.2 38.0
Rebounds - Defensive 28.0 28.9
Rebounds - Offensive 8.2 9.1
Turnovers 9.9 10.2
Blocked Shots 4.7 3.4
Steals 6.6 6.2
Fouls 14.6 13.6

Playing Style Advantage: Kentucky

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UK KU
Total Possessions 76.2
Effective Scoring Chances 74.5 75.1
% of Possessions with UK KU
2 Point Attempt 44.2% 50.1%
3 Point Attempt 30.1% 22.1%
Player Fouled 17.9% 19.2%
Turnover 13.0% 13.4%
Opponent Steal 8.1% 8.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken UK KU
Shot Blocked 5.4% 7.4%
Offensive Rebound 22.0% 24.5%