NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ACU CALBA
Points 67.7 69.9
Total Points   137.6
Points From 2-Pointers 41.5 36.6
Points From 3-Pointers 12.8 17.9
Points From Free Throws 13.4 15.4
Shooting ACU CALBA
Field Goals Made 25.0 24.2
Field Goals Attempted 56.4 55.1
Field Goal % 44.3% 44.0%
2 Pointers Made 20.8 18.3
2 Pointers Attempted 44.8 37.3
2 Point Shooting % 46.3% 49.0%
3 Pointers Made 4.3 6.0
3 Pointers Attempted 11.6 17.8
3 Point Shooting % 36.6% 33.5%
Free Throws Made 13.4 15.4
Free Throws Attempted 18.3 22.2
Free Throw % 73.4% 69.6%
Ball Control ACU CALBA
Rebounds 30.3 38.7
Rebounds - Defensive 23.6 27.5
Rebounds - Offensive 6.6 11.2
Turnovers 8.9 11.5
Blocked Shots 2.3 2.2
Steals 5.7 3.4
Fouls 16.6 15.5

Playing Style Advantage: Cal Baptist

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ACU CALBA
Total Possessions 69.7
Effective Scoring Chances 67.4 69.4
% of Possessions with ACU CALBA
2 Point Attempt 58.0% 45.6%
3 Point Attempt 15.1% 21.8%
Player Fouled 22.2% 23.8%
Turnover 12.8% 16.5%
Opponent Steal 4.9% 8.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken ACU CALBA
Shot Blocked 4.1% 4.1%
Offensive Rebound 19.4% 32.1%