NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring VILL XAV
Points 74.0 71.0
Total Points   145.0
Points From 2-Pointers 35.5 35.3
Points From 3-Pointers 25.8 23.4
Points From Free Throws 12.7 12.4
Shooting VILL XAV
Field Goals Made 26.3 25.4
Field Goals Attempted 59.1 59.5
Field Goal % 44.5% 42.8%
2 Pointers Made 17.7 17.6
2 Pointers Attempted 33.3 36.3
2 Point Shooting % 53.2% 48.6%
3 Pointers Made 8.6 7.8
3 Pointers Attempted 25.8 23.2
3 Point Shooting % 33.3% 33.6%
Free Throws Made 12.7 12.4
Free Throws Attempted 15.9 16.3
Free Throw % 79.7% 75.8%
Ball Control VILL XAV
Rebounds 34.5 35.7
Rebounds - Defensive 27.6 27.3
Rebounds - Offensive 6.9 8.4
Turnovers 9.0 9.5
Blocked Shots 3.4 3.6
Steals 5.1 5.6
Fouls 14.8 13.3

Playing Style Advantage: Villanova

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats VILL XAV
Total Possessions 70.3
Effective Scoring Chances 68.3 69.1
% of Possessions with VILL XAV
2 Point Attempt 42.3% 45.3%
3 Point Attempt 32.8% 29.0%
Player Fouled 19.0% 21.0%
Turnover 12.8% 13.6%
Opponent Steal 7.9% 7.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken VILL XAV
Shot Blocked 6.1% 5.9%
Offensive Rebound 20.3% 23.3%