NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UK ARK
Points 88.9 78.5
Total Points   167.5
Points From 2-Pointers 44.7 37.4
Points From 3-Pointers 24.4 19.4
Points From Free Throws 19.9 21.7
Shooting UK ARK
Field Goals Made 30.5 25.2
Field Goals Attempted 63.8 60.0
Field Goal % 47.7% 41.9%
2 Pointers Made 22.3 18.7
2 Pointers Attempted 43.3 40.1
2 Point Shooting % 51.5% 46.7%
3 Pointers Made 8.1 6.5
3 Pointers Attempted 20.5 20.0
3 Point Shooting % 39.6% 32.4%
Free Throws Made 19.9 21.7
Free Throws Attempted 25.4 28.4
Free Throw % 78.2% 76.5%
Ball Control UK ARK
Rebounds 39.1 35.3
Rebounds - Defensive 29.8 26.8
Rebounds - Offensive 9.3 8.5
Turnovers 9.8 11.1
Blocked Shots 5.1 4.6
Steals 6.6 5.6
Fouls 18.9 17.8

Playing Style Advantage: Arkansas

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UK ARK
Total Possessions 79.0
Effective Scoring Chances 78.5 76.4
% of Possessions with UK ARK
2 Point Attempt 48.0% 44.8%
3 Point Attempt 22.7% 22.3%
Player Fouled 22.5% 23.9%
Turnover 12.4% 14.0%
Opponent Steal 7.1% 8.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken UK ARK
Shot Blocked 7.9% 8.2%
Offensive Rebound 25.8% 22.1%