NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NW MICH
Points 77.7 70.0
Total Points   147.7
Points From 2-Pointers 39.9 34.0
Points From 3-Pointers 24.6 21.5
Points From Free Throws 13.2 14.6
Shooting NW MICH
Field Goals Made 28.1 24.1
Field Goals Attempted 59.7 51.4
Field Goal % 47.1% 47.0%
2 Pointers Made 19.9 17.0
2 Pointers Attempted 39.7 31.9
2 Point Shooting % 50.2% 53.2%
3 Pointers Made 8.2 7.2
3 Pointers Attempted 20.0 19.5
3 Point Shooting % 41.0% 36.8%
Free Throws Made 13.2 14.6
Free Throws Attempted 17.4 20.6
Free Throw % 75.6% 70.8%
Ball Control NW MICH
Rebounds 31.1 33.0
Rebounds - Defensive 23.0 25.6
Rebounds - Offensive 8.1 7.4
Turnovers 7.0 12.3
Blocked Shots 3.7 3.6
Steals 7.8 3.3
Fouls 15.8 15.3

Playing Style Advantage: Michigan

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NW MICH
Total Possessions 68.6
Effective Scoring Chances 69.6 63.7
% of Possessions with NW MICH
2 Point Attempt 50.8% 41.1%
3 Point Attempt 25.6% 25.1%
Player Fouled 22.3% 23.0%
Turnover 10.3% 17.9%
Opponent Steal 4.8% 11.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken NW MICH
Shot Blocked 7.2% 6.3%
Offensive Rebound 24.0% 24.4%