NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NEV AFA
Points 74.0 59.9
Total Points   133.9
Points From 2-Pointers 34.4 23.7
Points From 3-Pointers 19.3 25.1
Points From Free Throws 20.4 11.1
Shooting NEV AFA
Field Goals Made 23.6 20.2
Field Goals Attempted 45.9 50.0
Field Goal % 51.4% 40.4%
2 Pointers Made 17.2 11.8
2 Pointers Attempted 30.3 25.1
2 Point Shooting % 56.7% 47.3%
3 Pointers Made 6.4 8.4
3 Pointers Attempted 15.6 25.0
3 Point Shooting % 41.2% 33.5%
Free Throws Made 20.4 11.1
Free Throws Attempted 28.6 16.1
Free Throw % 71.2% 68.7%
Ball Control NEV AFA
Rebounds 33.7 26.0
Rebounds - Defensive 25.4 19.0
Rebounds - Offensive 8.3 7.0
Turnovers 9.4 11.6
Blocked Shots 3.3 2.5
Steals 5.7 4.9
Fouls 15.5 20.1

Playing Style Advantage: Nevada

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NEV AFA
Total Possessions 64.4
Effective Scoring Chances 63.3 59.8
% of Possessions with NEV AFA
2 Point Attempt 41.2% 34.5%
3 Point Attempt 21.2% 34.4%
Player Fouled 31.1% 24.1%
Turnover 14.5% 18.0%
Opponent Steal 7.6% 8.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken NEV AFA
Shot Blocked 5.2% 7.2%
Offensive Rebound 30.3% 21.6%