NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NEV DAV
Points 70.5 63.2
Total Points   133.7
Points From 2-Pointers 32.6 29.1
Points From 3-Pointers 19.5 19.6
Points From Free Throws 18.3 14.5
Shooting NEV DAV
Field Goals Made 22.8 21.1
Field Goals Attempted 50.5 53.7
Field Goal % 45.2% 39.2%
2 Pointers Made 16.3 14.5
2 Pointers Attempted 31.8 31.0
2 Point Shooting % 51.3% 46.9%
3 Pointers Made 6.5 6.5
3 Pointers Attempted 18.6 22.7
3 Point Shooting % 34.8% 28.8%
Free Throws Made 18.3 14.5
Free Throws Attempted 25.8 19.8
Free Throw % 71.2% 73.6%
Ball Control NEV DAV
Rebounds 35.5 31.9
Rebounds - Defensive 27.1 23.6
Rebounds - Offensive 8.4 8.3
Turnovers 9.8 10.2
Blocked Shots 3.3 2.6
Steals 6.1 4.9
Fouls 16.2 19.0

Playing Style Advantage: Nevada

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NEV DAV
Total Possessions 67.5
Effective Scoring Chances 66.1 65.6
% of Possessions with NEV DAV
2 Point Attempt 41.4% 40.2%
3 Point Attempt 24.2% 29.5%
Player Fouled 28.2% 24.0%
Turnover 14.5% 15.1%
Opponent Steal 7.3% 9.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken NEV DAV
Shot Blocked 5.0% 6.6%
Offensive Rebound 26.2% 23.4%