NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NCST BC
Points 74.8 71.1
Total Points   145.9
Points From 2-Pointers 39.9 35.8
Points From 3-Pointers 21.3 24.0
Points From Free Throws 13.7 11.2
Shooting NCST BC
Field Goals Made 27.0 25.9
Field Goals Attempted 60.1 59.4
Field Goal % 45.0% 43.7%
2 Pointers Made 19.9 17.9
2 Pointers Attempted 40.0 36.7
2 Point Shooting % 49.8% 48.8%
3 Pointers Made 7.1 8.0
3 Pointers Attempted 20.1 22.7
3 Point Shooting % 35.3% 35.3%
Free Throws Made 13.7 11.2
Free Throws Attempted 18.8 15.1
Free Throw % 72.6% 74.4%
Ball Control NCST BC
Rebounds 36.1 35.0
Rebounds - Defensive 26.6 26.3
Rebounds - Offensive 9.5 8.7
Turnovers 7.7 9.8
Blocked Shots 3.6 2.9
Steals 6.4 4.0
Fouls 13.1 14.1

Playing Style Advantage: Boston Col

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NCST BC
Total Possessions 69.5
Effective Scoring Chances 71.3 68.3
% of Possessions with NCST BC
2 Point Attempt 49.9% 46.1%
3 Point Attempt 25.0% 28.5%
Player Fouled 20.3% 18.8%
Turnover 11.1% 14.2%
Opponent Steal 5.8% 9.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken NCST BC
Shot Blocked 5.0% 6.1%
Offensive Rebound 26.6% 24.6%