NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring DAY NCST
Points 71.6 71.3
Total Points   142.9
Points From 2-Pointers 30.8 40.0
Points From 3-Pointers 27.2 21.0
Points From Free Throws 13.6 10.3
Shooting DAY NCST
Field Goals Made 24.5 27.0
Field Goals Attempted 54.1 61.3
Field Goal % 45.2% 44.0%
2 Pointers Made 15.4 20.0
2 Pointers Attempted 30.2 40.1
2 Point Shooting % 51.0% 49.8%
3 Pointers Made 9.1 7.0
3 Pointers Attempted 23.9 21.3
3 Point Shooting % 38.0% 32.9%
Free Throws Made 13.6 10.3
Free Throws Attempted 18.2 14.3
Free Throw % 74.7% 72.6%
Ball Control DAY NCST
Rebounds 34.3 34.0
Rebounds - Defensive 27.0 24.7
Rebounds - Offensive 7.3 9.3
Turnovers 10.4 7.5
Blocked Shots 2.8 3.6
Steals 3.8 6.1
Fouls 12.1 14.0

Playing Style Advantage: Dayton

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats DAY NCST
Total Possessions 68.0
Effective Scoring Chances 64.8 69.8
% of Possessions with DAY NCST
2 Point Attempt 39.4% 51.1%
3 Point Attempt 31.1% 27.1%
Player Fouled 20.6% 17.8%
Turnover 15.3% 11.0%
Opponent Steal 8.9% 5.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken DAY NCST
Shot Blocked 6.0% 5.3%
Offensive Rebound 22.7% 25.6%