NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NCST FSU
Points 78.1 71.0
Total Points   149.1
Points From 2-Pointers 39.1 39.3
Points From 3-Pointers 20.2 16.2
Points From Free Throws 18.8 15.5
Shooting NCST FSU
Field Goals Made 26.3 25.0
Field Goals Attempted 57.8 57.3
Field Goal % 45.5% 43.7%
2 Pointers Made 19.5 19.6
2 Pointers Attempted 39.2 39.7
2 Point Shooting % 49.8% 49.5%
3 Pointers Made 6.7 5.4
3 Pointers Attempted 18.6 17.6
3 Point Shooting % 36.3% 30.6%
Free Throws Made 18.8 15.5
Free Throws Attempted 25.9 22.0
Free Throw % 72.6% 70.5%
Ball Control NCST FSU
Rebounds 37.8 33.5
Rebounds - Defensive 26.4 24.0
Rebounds - Offensive 11.4 9.4
Turnovers 10.7 11.5
Blocked Shots 3.1 3.7
Steals 5.9 6.2
Fouls 16.0 16.9

Playing Style Advantage: NC State

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NCST FSU
Total Possessions 72.9
Effective Scoring Chances 73.6 70.8
% of Possessions with NCST FSU
2 Point Attempt 45.7% 47.5%
3 Point Attempt 21.6% 21.1%
Player Fouled 23.2% 22.0%
Turnover 14.7% 15.8%
Opponent Steal 8.5% 8.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken NCST FSU
Shot Blocked 6.6% 5.4%
Offensive Rebound 32.1% 26.3%