NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NCST UNCG
Points 77.3 67.6
Total Points   144.9
Points From 2-Pointers 36.6 27.6
Points From 3-Pointers 22.7 29.8
Points From Free Throws 18.0 10.2
Shooting NCST UNCG
Field Goals Made 25.9 23.7
Field Goals Attempted 55.5 58.1
Field Goal % 46.6% 40.8%
2 Pointers Made 18.3 13.8
2 Pointers Attempted 35.4 31.3
2 Point Shooting % 51.7% 44.1%
3 Pointers Made 7.6 9.9
3 Pointers Attempted 20.2 26.8
3 Point Shooting % 37.6% 37.0%
Free Throws Made 18.0 10.2
Free Throws Attempted 24.8 14.0
Free Throw % 72.6% 72.8%
Ball Control NCST UNCG
Rebounds 36.3 33.6
Rebounds - Defensive 26.6 23.9
Rebounds - Offensive 9.8 9.8
Turnovers 8.1 11.6
Blocked Shots 3.0 2.1
Steals 6.7 4.5
Fouls 13.0 16.4

Playing Style Advantage: NC-Grnsboro

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NCST UNCG
Total Possessions 69.0
Effective Scoring Chances 70.7 67.1
% of Possessions with NCST UNCG
2 Point Attempt 44.4% 39.1%
3 Point Attempt 25.3% 33.6%
Player Fouled 23.8% 18.8%
Turnover 11.7% 16.8%
Opponent Steal 6.6% 9.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken NCST UNCG
Shot Blocked 3.7% 5.4%
Offensive Rebound 29.1% 26.9%