NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MICH PUR
Points 65.7 85.5
Total Points   151.1
Points From 2-Pointers 34.2 46.0
Points From 3-Pointers 22.2 22.6
Points From Free Throws 9.2 16.8
Shooting MICH PUR
Field Goals Made 24.5 30.5
Field Goals Attempted 61.2 59.5
Field Goal % 40.1% 51.3%
2 Pointers Made 17.1 23.0
2 Pointers Attempted 38.1 40.9
2 Point Shooting % 44.9% 56.2%
3 Pointers Made 7.4 7.5
3 Pointers Attempted 23.1 18.6
3 Point Shooting % 32.0% 40.6%
Free Throws Made 9.2 16.8
Free Throws Attempted 13.0 23.1
Free Throw % 70.8% 73.0%
Ball Control MICH PUR
Rebounds 29.1 41.9
Rebounds - Defensive 20.3 29.7
Rebounds - Offensive 8.8 12.3
Turnovers 9.8 8.4
Blocked Shots 2.3 3.6
Steals 4.0 6.1
Fouls 17.4 12.2

Playing Style Advantage: Michigan

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MICH PUR
Total Possessions 70.0
Effective Scoring Chances 69.0 73.9
% of Possessions with MICH PUR
2 Point Attempt 47.5% 49.2%
3 Point Attempt 28.9% 22.3%
Player Fouled 17.4% 24.8%
Turnover 14.0% 12.0%
Opponent Steal 8.8% 5.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken MICH PUR
Shot Blocked 6.0% 3.9%
Offensive Rebound 22.8% 37.6%