NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring AKR TOL
Points 77.5 74.9
Total Points   152.4
Points From 2-Pointers 43.1 43.9
Points From 3-Pointers 22.7 16.1
Points From Free Throws 11.7 14.9
Shooting AKR TOL
Field Goals Made 29.1 27.3
Field Goals Attempted 57.1 57.8
Field Goal % 51.0% 47.3%
2 Pointers Made 21.6 21.9
2 Pointers Attempted 33.7 41.4
2 Point Shooting % 63.9% 52.9%
3 Pointers Made 7.6 5.4
3 Pointers Attempted 23.4 16.3
3 Point Shooting % 32.3% 32.8%
Free Throws Made 11.7 14.9
Free Throws Attempted 16.1 20.1
Free Throw % 72.9% 74.2%
Ball Control AKR TOL
Rebounds 33.3 30.4
Rebounds - Defensive 25.1 22.4
Rebounds - Offensive 8.2 8.0
Turnovers 11.1 9.0
Blocked Shots 3.9 1.6
Steals 4.5 5.8
Fouls 16.9 14.4

Playing Style Advantage: Toledo

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats AKR TOL
Total Possessions 70.4
Effective Scoring Chances 67.4 69.4
% of Possessions with AKR TOL
2 Point Attempt 42.6% 51.8%
3 Point Attempt 29.6% 20.4%
Player Fouled 20.5% 24.0%
Turnover 15.8% 12.8%
Opponent Steal 8.2% 6.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken AKR TOL
Shot Blocked 2.8% 6.9%
Offensive Rebound 26.7% 24.1%