2021 FSGA Expert Draft Strategy and Results

We participated in an expert draft through the FSGA, and took a different approach at the running back position.

July 15, 2021 - by Jason Lisk

For the second year in a row, TeamRankings participated in an Expert Fantasy Football Draft through the Fantasy Sports and Gaming Association (FSGA). Last year, we drew the 12th spot in a massive 14-team league and were able to reach the semifinals. This year, we drew the 12th spot again.

So in the rest of this post, we’ll lay out our strategy for drafting out of that spot in a 14-team league using PPR scoring. Here are the starting requirements for the league:

• 1 QB
• 2 RB
• 3 WR
• 1 TE
• 1 FLEX
• 1 K
• 1 DEF/ST

There are also six additional bench spots that can be used on any position, for a 16-round draft.

FSGA Pre-Draft Strategy

In comparing our preseason PPR projections and PPR rankings along with the average draft position data, to assess likely picks and strategy, a few things stood out.

First, coming out of the 12th spot, our highest value play in the first round was probably a wide receiver. Last year, we took Tyreek Hill with that pick, and this time around, Davante Adams and Stefon Diggs were both going off the board near that pick, and were atop our draft board at the position.

Another thing that stood out was the depth of receivers likely available around pick No. 40 (or third and then fourth round picks), compared to how we had the running backs valued who were on the board. Wide receiver with both the third and fourth round pick seemed optimal, and that’s true in part because of the format. Having both a PPR scoring format, and the ability to start up to 4 WR (and at least 3 WR ), makes the early WR-heavy approach viable.

In addition, the running back position was one where there is some value and upside after the Top 60 picks, at a point in the draft where other drafters tend to turn to WRs.

So the strategy going in, based on our rankings and draft board, was likely to be WR-heavy early, and then go for value later.

FSGA Early Draft Picks

Here are our picks in the first four rounds (we list the pick number):

• Pick No. 12: WR Davante Adams, Green Bay
• Pick No. 17: TE Darren Waller, Las Vegas
• Pick No. 40: WR Robert Woods, LA Rams
• Pick No. 45: WR Tee Higgins, Cincinnati

Our pre-draft strategy held form. The second round pick came down to the possibility of a few running back targets, or TE Darren Waller as the second best tight end on the board (Travis Kelce went before our first pick). Joe Mixon was the last of those running back targets, and he went at the end of the first round.

That pick of Waller was slightly early based on ADP and our own value rankings, but in this league, with the limited bench, a pick of Waller served strategic purposes. First, the tight end value was fairly poor based on our draft spot (where we had to wait 23 picks between picks), and if we did not take Waller, we were likely to be either reaching, or waiting until very late in the draft and taking two. Instead, snagging Waller meant we could choose to only roster one tight end and use that other spot for depth at another position.

Of course, you’ll notice we didn’t take any running backs by the end of the fourth round. Many fantasy managers would never stomach such a move. We weren’t in a position, though, to draft one of the top running backs, and the best chance at matching those teams in points was by taking the some of the best wide receivers and a top tight end.

FSGA Middle Round Picks

Here were our picks for rounds 5 to 10:

• Pick No 68: RB Kareem Hunt, Cleveland
• Pick No. 73: RB Javonte Williams, Denver
• Pick No. 96: WR Laviska Shenault, Jacksonville
• Pick No. 101: RB Kenyan Drake, Las Vegas
• Pick No. 124: RB A.J. Dillon, Green Bay
• Pick No. 129: QB Joe Burrow, Cincinnati

In the middle rounds, we did go running back heavy. The decision to take a third wide receiver like Higgins and wait to get a running back looked like the right move based on other draft picks. Between Tee Higgins at the 45th pick and our 68th pick, only two running backs–both Travis Etienne and James Robinson of Jacksonville–were drafted. Meanwhile, 17 different wide receivers were selected before our next pick came up.

All of the running backs in this range came at value based on both our own rankings and early July ADPs. Hunt and Williams are both inside the top 28 at running back by ADP, and Drake and Dillon are inside the top 40. What we lack in top end running back options we somewhat make up for in better-than-average depth in a 14-team league. Two of the running backs selected are better options in PPR (Hunt and Drake) as the likely receiving back in a committee. The other two are young players with upside to expand their roles as the season progresses.

At quarterback, we were prepared to pull the trigger at several points in the middle rounds on specific targets, but those players kept getting drafted so we continued to wait, ultimately adding a Joe Burrow pick to go along with Tee Higgins for Cincinnati.

FSGA Late Round Picks

Here are the picks for the final six rounds:

• Pick No. 152: WR John Brown, Las Vegas
• Pick No. 157: QB Justin Fields, Chicago
• Pick No. 180: QB Zach Wilson, NY Jets
• Pick No. 185: WR Jamison Crowder, NY Jets
• Pick No. 208: K Greg Zuerlein, Dallas
• Pick No. 213: Denver Defense/Special Teams

In a 14-team league, the depth thins out pretty quickly. In this league, though, not everyone drafts two quarterbacks. A lot of the third-tier quarterbacks went undrafted, so there were options late. Ultimately, after a few other targets (Baker Mayfield and Kirk Cousins among them) went right before our picks, we opted for a rookie quarterback combo. Will this team carry three quarterbacks all year? Probably not. But while Fields doesn’t look like he will be the starter now to open the season, a lot can change in the next six weeks. Zach Wilson was also going fairly cheap for a top draft pick who should provide at least some rushing value. Ultimately, we can see how those two rookies start the year before making some roster decisions to add depth elsewhere for the bye weeks.

Overall

Many fantasy owners would not feel comfortable waiting more than 60 picks into a draft to select their first running back. That strategy, though, was dictated by the draft position and value this year. We were not getting a top 20 running back by the time the third round pick arrived, and all the value in that area of the draft was at wide receiver, and it was going to go quickly after us.

We also were not getting a top running back drafting at the end of the first round. So then the question was one of whether a team is better off with something like Darren Waller + Kenyan Drake, or Antonio Gibson and Hunter Henry? You could argue either way, but our projections favor the former slightly.

Points are points, regardless of what position they come from. So yes, right now this team projects to be well above average at wide receiver and tight end, and below average at running back and quarterback starting slots. But the running back and quarterback slots have some high variance and value picks that, if they hit, could produce a top team. At least that’s the goal.

Here is the roster exiting the draft:

Position	Projected Starter	Reserves
QB	Joe Burrow	Justin Fields, Zach Wilson
RB	Kareem Hunt	Kenyan Drake
RB	Javonte Williams	A.J. Dillon
WR	Davante Adams	John Brown
WR	Robert Woods	Jamison Crowder
WR	Tee Higgins
FLEX	Laviska Shenault (WR)
TE	Darren Waller
K	Greg Zuerlein
DEF	Denver Broncos