2023 Fantasy Football Projection Changes

Our running list of changes to our fantasy football projections as we head toward the 2023 NFL season.

July 17, 2023 - by Jason Lisk

We released our initial 2023 fantasy football projections and rankings on May 12th. As we get closer to the season, though, information can change. Players get injured, traded, or released. Depth charts become clearer. So this post serves as a running change log of where we have made notable adjustments to those initial projections. We’ll list items in reverse chronological order, starting with the most recent.

2023 Fantasy Football Projection Changes

DeAndre Hopkins Expected to Sign with Tennessee (7/17)

Wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins is reportedly signing with the Tennessee Titans, nearly two months after he was released by Arizona. The 31-year-old Hopkins upgrades a Titans’ receiving group that is otherwise led by two players who were rookies last season.

We’ve made a slight upgrade to the Titans’ passing numbers overall, and also increased the expected games for Ryan Tannehill at QB (as this move is indicative that he should have a longer leash after the team also drafted Will Levis in the second round this year.)

Hopkins will appear in our listed rankings once he is officially added to the roster. Our projection for Hopkins puts him in about the WR26 range, in between Christian Kirk and Mike Williams.

WR Treylon Burks and TE Chig Okonkwo are both second-year players who still have upside cases, but do see a downgrade in our projections. Burks is now down to WR40 in PPR formats, in the same range as fellow second-year wide receiver Jahan Dotson. Okonkwo is now at TE10, still a solid value. Okonkwo in particularly has a lot of really good player comps and still has potential for a breakout playing in the same offense as Hopkins.

The bigger hits are to the other pieces. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine in particularly is no longer a viable fantasy option in a lower volume passing offense, as he drops outside the top 100 in our wide receiver rankings.

Dalvin Cook Officially Release by Vikings (6/12)

With Dalvin Cook now officially released, we’ve adjusted the rankings and projections even further.

Mattison is up to RB15 in our PPR RB Rankings and second-year running back Ty Chandler moves into the rankings as the most likely to serve as the second back. However, there is always the risk that the Vikings make another move here, so those projections are tentative and have more uncertainty than a settled backfield situation.

Meanwhile, Cook is not currently shown in our rankings, since he’s not on a roster (the same is true of other players like Ezekiel Elliott and Leonard Fournette who are not signed). He’ll likely sign somewhere, though his asking price is likely too high for any team to jump to acquire him yet. It’s unlikely he’ll fall into a feature role unless there is a notable injury somewhere, so he more likely slots into that RB27 to 30 range with injury uncertainties like Javonte Williams and a suspension risk like Alvin Kamara.

DeAndre Hopkins Released by the Cardinals (5/26)

The Arizona Cardinals have outright released WR DeAndre Hopkins, allowing the receiver to sign wherever he wants. Arizona is in major tear-down mode, and there were plenty of rumors in the offseason that Hopkins wanted to be traded.

We have updated our Arizona Cardinals projection to distribute the large amount of expected production that would have gone to Hopkins.

After the shifts, the following are the notable changes, in PPR Rankings.

• Marquise Brown is up from WR39 to WR30, as the expected top receiver in Arizona now;
• Rondale Moore (WR65) and Greg Dortsch (WR92) both see bumps, though they still are questionable to be drafted in redrafts, though they could be of increased interest in best ball;
• TE Trey McBride perhaps sees the biggest bump, as there is less target competition now for the second-year tight end. He’s up to TE20 and is a viable consideration as a second tight end.

Dalvin Cook Trade or Release Potential Intensifies (5/18)

It’s looking more and more like Dalvin Cook will not be a Minnesota Viking this season. The Vikings, who have cap issues, had already reportedly asked him to take a pay cut for this season, and he has been subject to some trade rumors.

As a result, his market value was already on the decline, and Alexander Mattison’s was higher, on the potential of a backfield split or roster move.

This week, the team removed Cook from the team’s Twitter banner, and replaced him with an image of Mattison. While nothing’s official until a move is made, we have further adjusted Mattison’s expected share up and Cook’s down based on the latest news and moves. We should probably know something by early June (as a post-June trade or release is likely).

For now, Mattison is up to RB24, and Dalvin Cook down to RB30 in our PPR RB Rankings. This basically reverses where the two backs were in the initial release of our rankings.

There’s a lot of uncertainty here if you are drafting early, but exercise some reasonable caution with Cook. Most potential landing spots would likely leave him competing as part of a platoon situation. Meanwhile, Mattison isn’t guaranteed to be a workhorse either. If Minnesota was willing to bring Cook back on a pay cut, there are several other veterans who are currently unsigned (Ezekiel Elliott, Leonard Fournette, Kareem Hunt) who could be brought in to platoon in Minnesota in place of Cook.