NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIL MIA
Points 111.9 109.7
Total Points   221.7
Points From 2-Pointers 52.5 54.0
Points From 3-Pointers 42.9 37.8
Points From Free Throws 16.5 17.9
Shooting MIL MIA
Field Goals Made 40.6 39.6
Field Goals Attempted 84.8 87.5
Field Goal % 47.8% 45.3%
2 Pointers Made 26.2 27.0
2 Pointers Attempted 44.8 52.7
2 Point Shooting % 58.6% 51.3%
3 Pointers Made 14.3 12.6
3 Pointers Attempted 40.0 34.7
3 Point Shooting % 35.8% 36.3%
Free Throws Made 16.5 17.9
Free Throws Attempted 21.1 21.9
Free Throw % 78.0% 81.9%
Ball Control MIL MIA
Rebounds 48.8 47.5
Rebounds - Defensive 39.8 37.7
Rebounds - Offensive 9.0 9.8
Turnovers 11.9 10.2
Blocked Shots 4.3 2.8
Steals 5.5 6.6
Fouls 17.4 16.3

Playing Style Advantage: Miami

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIL MIA
Total Possessions 100.3
Effective Scoring Chances 97.4 99.9
% of Possessions with MIL MIA
2 Point Attempt 40.6% 47.1%
3 Point Attempt 36.2% 31.1%
Player Fouled 16.3% 17.4%
Turnover 11.8% 10.2%
Opponent Steal 6.6% 5.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIL MIA
Shot Blocked 3.2% 5.1%
Offensive Rebound 19.3% 19.7%