NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIL NO
Points 113.1 113.1
Total Points   226.2
Points From 2-Pointers 51.3 59.8
Points From 3-Pointers 44.5 36.1
Points From Free Throws 17.4 17.1
Shooting MIL NO
Field Goals Made 40.5 42.0
Field Goals Attempted 85.4 88.7
Field Goal % 47.4% 47.3%
2 Pointers Made 25.6 29.9
2 Pointers Attempted 44.2 55.5
2 Point Shooting % 58.0% 53.9%
3 Pointers Made 14.8 12.0
3 Pointers Attempted 41.2 33.2
3 Point Shooting % 36.0% 36.2%
Free Throws Made 17.4 17.1
Free Throws Attempted 22.3 22.0
Free Throw % 78.0% 77.9%
Ball Control MIL NO
Rebounds 47.8 48.8
Rebounds - Defensive 38.1 37.8
Rebounds - Offensive 9.6 11.0
Turnovers 12.1 10.5
Blocked Shots 4.4 3.8
Steals 5.5 7.0
Fouls 16.7 17.2

Playing Style Advantage: New Orleans

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIL NO
Total Possessions 100.9
Effective Scoring Chances 98.5 101.4
% of Possessions with MIL NO
2 Point Attempt 39.4% 48.9%
3 Point Attempt 36.8% 29.2%
Player Fouled 17.0% 16.6%
Turnover 12.0% 10.4%
Opponent Steal 6.9% 5.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIL NO
Shot Blocked 4.4% 5.2%
Offensive Rebound 20.3% 22.4%