NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CHI MIA
Points 108.9 110.3
Total Points   219.1
Points From 2-Pointers 58.5 49.5
Points From 3-Pointers 35.1 42.2
Points From Free Throws 15.2 18.5
Shooting CHI MIA
Field Goals Made 41.0 38.8
Field Goals Attempted 86.8 83.7
Field Goal % 47.2% 46.4%
2 Pointers Made 29.3 24.8
2 Pointers Attempted 52.9 45.7
2 Point Shooting % 55.3% 54.1%
3 Pointers Made 11.7 14.1
3 Pointers Attempted 33.9 37.9
3 Point Shooting % 34.5% 37.1%
Free Throws Made 15.2 18.5
Free Throws Attempted 19.2 22.6
Free Throw % 79.2% 81.9%
Ball Control CHI MIA
Rebounds 47.6 46.9
Rebounds - Defensive 37.0 37.3
Rebounds - Offensive 10.6 9.6
Turnovers 11.1 11.8
Blocked Shots 4.4 3.0
Steals 6.3 6.2
Fouls 17.4 15.6

Playing Style Advantage: Miami

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CHI MIA
Total Possessions 98.9
Effective Scoring Chances 98.4 96.7
% of Possessions with CHI MIA
2 Point Attempt 47.8% 41.5%
3 Point Attempt 30.6% 34.4%
Player Fouled 15.8% 17.6%
Turnover 11.3% 12.0%
Opponent Steal 6.3% 6.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken CHI MIA
Shot Blocked 3.7% 5.1%
Offensive Rebound 22.1% 20.7%