NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CLE MIA
Points 106.9 106.0
Total Points   212.9
Points From 2-Pointers 52.8 51.7
Points From 3-Pointers 39.7 37.0
Points From Free Throws 14.3 17.3
Shooting CLE MIA
Field Goals Made 39.6 38.2
Field Goals Attempted 83.8 84.1
Field Goal % 47.3% 45.4%
2 Pointers Made 26.4 25.9
2 Pointers Attempted 45.6 50.8
2 Point Shooting % 57.8% 50.9%
3 Pointers Made 13.2 12.3
3 Pointers Attempted 38.2 33.3
3 Point Shooting % 34.7% 37.0%
Free Throws Made 14.3 17.3
Free Throws Attempted 18.9 21.1
Free Throw % 75.8% 81.9%
Ball Control CLE MIA
Rebounds 47.4 46.8
Rebounds - Defensive 37.9 37.0
Rebounds - Offensive 9.5 9.8
Turnovers 12.5 11.6
Blocked Shots 4.1 3.2
Steals 6.0 7.1
Fouls 16.1 16.2

Playing Style Advantage: Miami

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CLE MIA
Total Possessions 98.2
Effective Scoring Chances 95.2 96.4
% of Possessions with CLE MIA
2 Point Attempt 41.9% 46.3%
3 Point Attempt 35.0% 30.4%
Player Fouled 16.4% 16.4%
Turnover 12.8% 11.8%
Opponent Steal 7.3% 6.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken CLE MIA
Shot Blocked 3.9% 5.0%
Offensive Rebound 20.5% 20.5%