NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BOS MIA
Points 113.2 102.0
Total Points   215.3
Points From 2-Pointers 49.9 50.2
Points From 3-Pointers 48.8 38.2
Points From Free Throws 14.5 13.6
Shooting BOS MIA
Field Goals Made 41.2 37.8
Field Goals Attempted 86.3 89.1
Field Goal % 47.8% 42.5%
2 Pointers Made 24.9 25.1
2 Pointers Attempted 42.5 52.9
2 Point Shooting % 58.6% 47.4%
3 Pointers Made 16.3 12.7
3 Pointers Attempted 43.8 36.2
3 Point Shooting % 37.2% 35.2%
Free Throws Made 14.5 13.6
Free Throws Attempted 18.3 16.6
Free Throw % 79.4% 81.9%
Ball Control BOS MIA
Rebounds 52.1 47.1
Rebounds - Defensive 41.6 36.5
Rebounds - Offensive 10.6 10.6
Turnovers 10.8 10.2
Blocked Shots 5.6 2.4
Steals 5.4 5.4
Fouls 14.5 14.5

Playing Style Advantage: Miami

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BOS MIA
Total Possessions 97.7
Effective Scoring Chances 97.5 98.1
% of Possessions with BOS MIA
2 Point Attempt 38.9% 47.9%
3 Point Attempt 40.1% 32.8%
Player Fouled 14.8% 14.8%
Turnover 11.0% 10.4%
Opponent Steal 5.5% 5.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken BOS MIA
Shot Blocked 2.8% 6.5%
Offensive Rebound 22.5% 20.3%