NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BOS MIA
Points 112.7 101.1
Total Points   213.8
Points From 2-Pointers 49.4 50.6
Points From 3-Pointers 48.9 36.7
Points From Free Throws 14.5 13.7
Shooting BOS MIA
Field Goals Made 41.0 37.5
Field Goals Attempted 86.2 88.8
Field Goal % 47.5% 42.3%
2 Pointers Made 24.7 25.3
2 Pointers Attempted 41.9 53.4
2 Point Shooting % 59.0% 47.4%
3 Pointers Made 16.3 12.2
3 Pointers Attempted 44.3 35.3
3 Point Shooting % 36.8% 34.6%
Free Throws Made 14.5 13.7
Free Throws Attempted 18.2 16.8
Free Throw % 79.6% 81.9%
Ball Control BOS MIA
Rebounds 51.9 47.3
Rebounds - Defensive 41.4 36.6
Rebounds - Offensive 10.5 10.7
Turnovers 10.9 10.5
Blocked Shots 5.7 2.3
Steals 5.6 5.4
Fouls 14.5 14.6

Playing Style Advantage: Miami

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BOS MIA
Total Possessions 97.7
Effective Scoring Chances 97.4 97.9
% of Possessions with BOS MIA
2 Point Attempt 38.4% 48.3%
3 Point Attempt 40.6% 31.9%
Player Fouled 14.9% 14.8%
Turnover 11.1% 10.7%
Opponent Steal 5.6% 5.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken BOS MIA
Shot Blocked 2.6% 6.7%
Offensive Rebound 22.3% 20.5%