NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BOS IND
Points 122.5 113.9
Total Points   236.3
Points From 2-Pointers 63.7 62.1
Points From 3-Pointers 39.8 39.1
Points From Free Throws 18.9 12.6
Shooting BOS IND
Field Goals Made 45.1 44.1
Field Goals Attempted 90.1 95.4
Field Goal % 50.1% 46.2%
2 Pointers Made 31.9 31.1
2 Pointers Attempted 55.5 58.8
2 Point Shooting % 57.4% 52.9%
3 Pointers Made 13.3 13.0
3 Pointers Attempted 34.6 36.6
3 Point Shooting % 38.4% 35.6%
Free Throws Made 18.9 12.6
Free Throws Attempted 23.9 16.4
Free Throw % 79.0% 77.0%
Ball Control BOS IND
Rebounds 52.9 47.0
Rebounds - Defensive 40.4 34.9
Rebounds - Offensive 12.6 12.2
Turnovers 10.6 10.2
Blocked Shots 6.2 4.5
Steals 5.5 5.3
Fouls 14.4 17.3

Playing Style Advantage: Indiana

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BOS IND
Total Possessions 102.1
Effective Scoring Chances 104.0 104.1
% of Possessions with BOS IND
2 Point Attempt 47.6% 50.3%
3 Point Attempt 29.7% 31.4%
Player Fouled 17.0% 14.1%
Turnover 10.4% 9.9%
Opponent Steal 5.2% 5.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken BOS IND
Shot Blocked 4.8% 7.0%
Offensive Rebound 26.5% 23.2%