NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring BOS IND
Points 123.5 115.1
Total Points   238.6
Points From 2-Pointers 64.2 63.4
Points From 3-Pointers 40.3 38.7
Points From Free Throws 19.0 13.0
Shooting BOS IND
Field Goals Made 45.5 44.6
Field Goals Attempted 90.5 95.9
Field Goal % 50.3% 46.5%
2 Pointers Made 32.1 31.7
2 Pointers Attempted 55.4 59.7
2 Point Shooting % 57.9% 53.1%
3 Pointers Made 13.4 12.9
3 Pointers Attempted 35.1 36.2
3 Point Shooting % 38.3% 35.6%
Free Throws Made 19.0 13.0
Free Throws Attempted 24.0 16.8
Free Throw % 79.2% 77.8%
Ball Control BOS IND
Rebounds 52.8 47.2
Rebounds - Defensive 40.2 34.8
Rebounds - Offensive 12.6 12.3
Turnovers 10.8 10.2
Blocked Shots 6.4 4.5
Steals 5.5 5.5
Fouls 14.3 17.4

Playing Style Advantage: Indiana

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats BOS IND
Total Possessions 102.7
Effective Scoring Chances 104.4 104.8
% of Possessions with BOS IND
2 Point Attempt 47.3% 50.8%
3 Point Attempt 29.9% 30.8%
Player Fouled 16.9% 14.0%
Turnover 10.5% 10.0%
Opponent Steal 5.4% 5.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken BOS IND
Shot Blocked 4.8% 7.2%
Offensive Rebound 26.5% 23.5%