NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MEM ORL
Points 99.7 109.5
Total Points   209.2
Points From 2-Pointers 48.7 55.5
Points From 3-Pointers 33.6 34.6
Points From Free Throws 17.4 19.4
Shooting MEM ORL
Field Goals Made 35.6 39.3
Field Goals Attempted 82.8 82.6
Field Goal % 43.0% 47.5%
2 Pointers Made 24.4 27.7
2 Pointers Attempted 49.4 50.6
2 Point Shooting % 49.3% 54.9%
3 Pointers Made 11.2 11.5
3 Pointers Attempted 33.4 32.1
3 Point Shooting % 33.6% 35.9%
Free Throws Made 17.4 19.4
Free Throws Attempted 22.7 25.5
Free Throw % 76.6% 76.1%
Ball Control MEM ORL
Rebounds 45.0 50.8
Rebounds - Defensive 34.0 38.5
Rebounds - Offensive 11.0 12.4
Turnovers 15.5 14.9
Blocked Shots 5.7 6.4
Steals 8.4 8.3
Fouls 19.2 18.2

Playing Style Advantage: Memphis

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MEM ORL
Total Possessions 100.3
Effective Scoring Chances 95.8 97.7
% of Possessions with MEM ORL
2 Point Attempt 43.4% 44.0%
3 Point Attempt 29.3% 27.9%
Player Fouled 18.1% 19.2%
Turnover 15.4% 14.9%
Opponent Steal 8.3% 8.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken MEM ORL
Shot Blocked 7.9% 7.0%
Offensive Rebound 22.3% 26.7%