NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MEM DEN
Points 103.0 116.3
Total Points   219.3
Points From 2-Pointers 51.9 63.9
Points From 3-Pointers 33.9 36.3
Points From Free Throws 17.2 16.2
Shooting MEM DEN
Field Goals Made 37.2 44.0
Field Goals Attempted 88.6 87.7
Field Goal % 42.0% 50.2%
2 Pointers Made 25.9 31.9
2 Pointers Attempted 54.5 55.6
2 Point Shooting % 47.6% 57.4%
3 Pointers Made 11.3 12.1
3 Pointers Attempted 34.1 32.1
3 Point Shooting % 33.1% 37.7%
Free Throws Made 17.2 16.2
Free Throws Attempted 22.5 20.9
Free Throw % 76.6% 77.4%
Ball Control MEM DEN
Rebounds 46.8 52.5
Rebounds - Defensive 33.5 40.2
Rebounds - Offensive 13.3 12.3
Turnovers 12.2 12.6
Blocked Shots 5.6 6.9
Steals 7.0 6.8
Fouls 16.6 16.2

Playing Style Advantage: Memphis

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MEM DEN
Total Possessions 100.1
Effective Scoring Chances 101.2 99.8
% of Possessions with MEM DEN
2 Point Attempt 46.9% 48.6%
3 Point Attempt 29.4% 28.0%
Player Fouled 16.2% 16.6%
Turnover 12.1% 12.6%
Opponent Steal 6.8% 7.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken MEM DEN
Shot Blocked 8.0% 6.4%
Offensive Rebound 24.8% 26.8%