NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ATL DET
Points 121.8 118.0
Total Points   239.7
Points From 2-Pointers 63.2 63.2
Points From 3-Pointers 38.1 36.9
Points From Free Throws 20.5 17.9
Shooting ATL DET
Field Goals Made 44.3 43.9
Field Goals Attempted 90.0 88.3
Field Goal % 49.2% 49.7%
2 Pointers Made 31.6 31.6
2 Pointers Attempted 55.6 55.4
2 Point Shooting % 56.8% 57.0%
3 Pointers Made 12.7 12.3
3 Pointers Attempted 34.3 32.9
3 Point Shooting % 37.0% 37.4%
Free Throws Made 20.5 17.9
Free Throws Attempted 26.1 22.8
Free Throw % 78.3% 78.3%
Ball Control ATL DET
Rebounds 47.8 47.5
Rebounds - Defensive 35.7 36.3
Rebounds - Offensive 12.2 11.1
Turnovers 11.4 13.9
Blocked Shots 5.1 4.8
Steals 7.9 6.3
Fouls 16.1 18.7

Playing Style Advantage: Detroit

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ATL DET
Total Possessions 104.4
Effective Scoring Chances 105.1 101.6
% of Possessions with ATL DET
2 Point Attempt 47.0% 47.1%
3 Point Attempt 29.0% 28.0%
Player Fouled 17.9% 15.4%
Turnover 11.0% 13.3%
Opponent Steal 6.0% 7.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken ATL DET
Shot Blocked 5.6% 5.8%
Offensive Rebound 25.1% 23.8%