NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIA MIL
Points 109.1 111.7
Total Points   220.8
Points From 2-Pointers 53.9 52.8
Points From 3-Pointers 37.6 42.4
Points From Free Throws 17.6 16.5
Shooting MIA MIL
Field Goals Made 39.5 40.5
Field Goals Attempted 87.2 84.6
Field Goal % 45.3% 47.9%
2 Pointers Made 26.9 26.4
2 Pointers Attempted 52.1 45.0
2 Point Shooting % 51.7% 58.7%
3 Pointers Made 12.5 14.1
3 Pointers Attempted 35.0 39.6
3 Point Shooting % 35.8% 35.7%
Free Throws Made 17.6 16.5
Free Throws Attempted 21.5 21.2
Free Throw % 81.9% 78.0%
Ball Control MIA MIL
Rebounds 47.2 48.8
Rebounds - Defensive 37.5 39.7
Rebounds - Offensive 9.7 9.1
Turnovers 10.1 11.7
Blocked Shots 2.7 4.1
Steals 6.4 5.4
Fouls 16.2 17.5

Playing Style Advantage: Miami

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIA MIL
Total Possessions 99.9
Effective Scoring Chances 99.5 97.3
% of Possessions with MIA MIL
2 Point Attempt 46.9% 40.8%
3 Point Attempt 31.5% 36.0%
Player Fouled 17.5% 16.2%
Turnover 10.1% 11.7%
Opponent Steal 5.4% 6.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIA MIL
Shot Blocked 4.9% 3.2%
Offensive Rebound 19.7% 19.5%