NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIA CHI
Points 110.3 108.9
Total Points   219.1
Points From 2-Pointers 49.5 58.5
Points From 3-Pointers 42.2 35.1
Points From Free Throws 18.5 15.2
Shooting MIA CHI
Field Goals Made 38.8 41.0
Field Goals Attempted 83.7 86.8
Field Goal % 46.4% 47.2%
2 Pointers Made 24.8 29.3
2 Pointers Attempted 45.7 52.9
2 Point Shooting % 54.1% 55.3%
3 Pointers Made 14.1 11.7
3 Pointers Attempted 37.9 33.9
3 Point Shooting % 37.1% 34.5%
Free Throws Made 18.5 15.2
Free Throws Attempted 22.6 19.2
Free Throw % 81.9% 79.2%
Ball Control MIA CHI
Rebounds 46.9 47.6
Rebounds - Defensive 37.3 37.0
Rebounds - Offensive 9.6 10.6
Turnovers 11.8 11.1
Blocked Shots 3.0 4.4
Steals 6.2 6.3
Fouls 15.6 17.4

Playing Style Advantage: Miami

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIA CHI
Total Possessions 98.9
Effective Scoring Chances 96.7 98.4
% of Possessions with MIA CHI
2 Point Attempt 41.5% 47.8%
3 Point Attempt 34.4% 30.6%
Player Fouled 17.6% 15.8%
Turnover 12.0% 11.3%
Opponent Steal 6.4% 6.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIA CHI
Shot Blocked 5.1% 3.7%
Offensive Rebound 20.7% 22.1%