NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIA BOS
Points 102.4 113.7
Total Points   216.0
Points From 2-Pointers 50.3 49.9
Points From 3-Pointers 38.2 49.3
Points From Free Throws 13.9 14.5
Shooting MIA BOS
Field Goals Made 37.9 41.4
Field Goals Attempted 89.3 86.7
Field Goal % 42.4% 47.7%
2 Pointers Made 25.2 24.9
2 Pointers Attempted 53.1 42.8
2 Point Shooting % 47.4% 58.3%
3 Pointers Made 12.7 16.4
3 Pointers Attempted 36.2 43.9
3 Point Shooting % 35.2% 37.4%
Free Throws Made 13.9 14.5
Free Throws Attempted 16.9 18.3
Free Throw % 81.9% 79.0%
Ball Control MIA BOS
Rebounds 47.6 52.1
Rebounds - Defensive 36.8 41.5
Rebounds - Offensive 10.8 10.6
Turnovers 10.4 10.8
Blocked Shots 2.5 5.7
Steals 5.5 5.5
Fouls 14.4 14.6

Playing Style Advantage: Miami

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIA BOS
Total Possessions 98.1
Effective Scoring Chances 98.5 97.9
% of Possessions with MIA BOS
2 Point Attempt 47.8% 39.0%
3 Point Attempt 32.6% 40.1%
Player Fouled 14.9% 14.7%
Turnover 10.6% 11.0%
Opponent Steal 5.6% 5.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIA BOS
Shot Blocked 6.7% 2.8%
Offensive Rebound 20.6% 22.3%