NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIA BOS
Points 101.7 113.1
Total Points   214.8
Points From 2-Pointers 50.6 49.4
Points From 3-Pointers 37.6 49.2
Points From Free Throws 13.6 14.5
Shooting MIA BOS
Field Goals Made 37.8 41.1
Field Goals Attempted 89.0 86.4
Field Goal % 42.4% 47.6%
2 Pointers Made 25.3 24.7
2 Pointers Attempted 53.3 42.0
2 Point Shooting % 47.5% 58.8%
3 Pointers Made 12.5 16.4
3 Pointers Attempted 35.8 44.4
3 Point Shooting % 35.0% 37.0%
Free Throws Made 13.6 14.5
Free Throws Attempted 16.6 18.2
Free Throw % 81.9% 79.5%
Ball Control MIA BOS
Rebounds 47.4 52.0
Rebounds - Defensive 36.7 41.4
Rebounds - Offensive 10.7 10.6
Turnovers 10.4 10.8
Blocked Shots 2.3 5.6
Steals 5.4 5.6
Fouls 14.6 14.5

Playing Style Advantage: Miami

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIA BOS
Total Possessions 97.8
Effective Scoring Chances 98.0 97.6
% of Possessions with MIA BOS
2 Point Attempt 48.1% 38.4%
3 Point Attempt 32.3% 40.6%
Player Fouled 14.9% 14.9%
Turnover 10.7% 11.1%
Opponent Steal 5.7% 5.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIA BOS
Shot Blocked 6.6% 2.7%
Offensive Rebound 20.5% 22.4%