NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIA MEM
Points 110.0 102.2
Total Points   212.1
Points From 2-Pointers 52.5 47.9
Points From 3-Pointers 39.2 39.2
Points From Free Throws 18.2 15.1
Shooting MIA MEM
Field Goals Made 39.3 37.0
Field Goals Attempted 84.1 84.7
Field Goal % 46.8% 43.7%
2 Pointers Made 26.3 23.9
2 Pointers Attempted 49.2 45.7
2 Point Shooting % 53.3% 52.3%
3 Pointers Made 13.1 13.1
3 Pointers Attempted 34.9 39.0
3 Point Shooting % 37.5% 33.5%
Free Throws Made 18.2 15.1
Free Throws Attempted 22.3 19.7
Free Throw % 81.9% 76.6%
Ball Control MIA MEM
Rebounds 49.2 47.2
Rebounds - Defensive 38.8 36.1
Rebounds - Offensive 10.4 11.2
Turnovers 13.0 13.9
Blocked Shots 4.1 5.5
Steals 7.5 6.7
Fouls 15.9 17.4

Playing Style Advantage: Memphis

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIA MEM
Total Possessions 99.4
Effective Scoring Chances 96.8 96.6
% of Possessions with MIA MEM
2 Point Attempt 44.0% 40.7%
3 Point Attempt 31.2% 34.8%
Player Fouled 17.5% 16.0%
Turnover 13.0% 14.0%
Opponent Steal 6.8% 7.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIA MEM
Shot Blocked 6.6% 5.0%
Offensive Rebound 22.3% 22.4%