NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIA CHA
Points 112.1 102.7
Total Points   214.8
Points From 2-Pointers 54.7 52.0
Points From 3-Pointers 40.6 37.5
Points From Free Throws 16.9 13.2
Shooting MIA CHA
Field Goals Made 40.9 38.5
Field Goals Attempted 84.7 83.9
Field Goal % 48.3% 45.9%
2 Pointers Made 27.4 26.0
2 Pointers Attempted 48.9 47.3
2 Point Shooting % 56.0% 55.0%
3 Pointers Made 13.5 12.5
3 Pointers Attempted 35.8 36.6
3 Point Shooting % 37.8% 34.1%
Free Throws Made 16.9 13.2
Free Throws Attempted 20.6 16.7
Free Throw % 81.9% 78.9%
Ball Control MIA CHA
Rebounds 48.9 43.8
Rebounds - Defensive 38.6 35.3
Rebounds - Offensive 10.3 8.5
Turnovers 11.8 12.9
Blocked Shots 3.0 4.0
Steals 6.7 5.7
Fouls 15.0 16.2

Playing Style Advantage: Charlotte

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIA CHA
Total Possessions 98.3
Effective Scoring Chances 96.8 93.9
% of Possessions with MIA CHA
2 Point Attempt 44.4% 43.8%
3 Point Attempt 32.5% 33.9%
Player Fouled 16.5% 15.3%
Turnover 12.0% 13.1%
Opponent Steal 5.8% 6.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIA CHA
Shot Blocked 4.8% 3.6%
Offensive Rebound 22.6% 18.1%