NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIA LAL
Points 111.1 112.2
Total Points   223.3
Points From 2-Pointers 54.9 59.9
Points From 3-Pointers 41.2 35.8
Points From Free Throws 15.1 16.5
Shooting MIA LAL
Field Goals Made 41.2 41.9
Field Goals Attempted 90.1 83.3
Field Goal % 45.7% 50.2%
2 Pointers Made 27.4 29.9
2 Pointers Attempted 53.4 50.4
2 Point Shooting % 51.4% 59.4%
3 Pointers Made 13.7 11.9
3 Pointers Attempted 36.7 33.0
3 Point Shooting % 37.5% 36.2%
Free Throws Made 15.1 16.5
Free Throws Attempted 18.4 21.3
Free Throw % 81.9% 77.6%
Ball Control MIA LAL
Rebounds 46.9 47.3
Rebounds - Defensive 36.3 39.6
Rebounds - Offensive 10.6 7.7
Turnovers 11.2 12.9
Blocked Shots 3.1 4.6
Steals 7.6 5.8
Fouls 16.8 14.2

Playing Style Advantage: LA Lakers

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIA LAL
Total Possessions 101.1
Effective Scoring Chances 100.6 95.9
% of Possessions with MIA LAL
2 Point Attempt 47.0% 45.8%
3 Point Attempt 32.3% 29.9%
Player Fouled 14.0% 16.6%
Turnover 11.0% 12.8%
Opponent Steal 5.7% 7.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIA LAL
Shot Blocked 5.5% 3.5%
Offensive Rebound 21.2% 17.6%