NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIA DAL
Points 107.5 110.9
Total Points   218.4
Points From 2-Pointers 51.6 53.0
Points From 3-Pointers 37.8 42.0
Points From Free Throws 18.1 15.8
Shooting MIA DAL
Field Goals Made 38.4 40.5
Field Goals Attempted 85.9 85.1
Field Goal % 44.7% 47.6%
2 Pointers Made 25.8 26.5
2 Pointers Attempted 51.8 45.0
2 Point Shooting % 49.8% 58.8%
3 Pointers Made 12.6 14.0
3 Pointers Attempted 34.2 40.0
3 Point Shooting % 36.9% 35.0%
Free Throws Made 18.1 15.8
Free Throws Attempted 22.1 21.0
Free Throw % 81.9% 75.3%
Ball Control MIA DAL
Rebounds 48.2 48.5
Rebounds - Defensive 37.8 38.8
Rebounds - Offensive 10.4 9.7
Turnovers 11.6 11.7
Blocked Shots 2.6 4.7
Steals 6.7 5.5
Fouls 17.5 17.0

Playing Style Advantage: Miami

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIA DAL
Total Possessions 99.8
Effective Scoring Chances 98.6 97.8
% of Possessions with MIA DAL
2 Point Attempt 46.2% 40.8%
3 Point Attempt 30.5% 36.2%
Player Fouled 17.1% 17.5%
Turnover 11.6% 11.7%
Opponent Steal 5.5% 6.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIA DAL
Shot Blocked 5.6% 3.0%
Offensive Rebound 21.2% 20.4%