NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIA BK
Points 108.6 105.3
Total Points   213.9
Points From 2-Pointers 53.3 50.9
Points From 3-Pointers 37.8 39.5
Points From Free Throws 17.5 14.9
Shooting MIA BK
Field Goals Made 39.3 38.6
Field Goals Attempted 85.3 85.5
Field Goal % 46.0% 45.1%
2 Pointers Made 26.7 25.4
2 Pointers Attempted 51.4 47.2
2 Point Shooting % 51.9% 53.8%
3 Pointers Made 12.6 13.2
3 Pointers Attempted 34.0 38.3
3 Point Shooting % 37.1% 34.4%
Free Throws Made 17.5 14.9
Free Throws Attempted 21.4 19.6
Free Throw % 81.9% 76.0%
Ball Control MIA BK
Rebounds 48.3 48.8
Rebounds - Defensive 38.3 37.7
Rebounds - Offensive 10.1 11.1
Turnovers 11.0 12.2
Blocked Shots 3.2 4.5
Steals 6.3 5.5
Fouls 15.5 16.9

Playing Style Advantage: Miami

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIA BK
Total Possessions 98.5
Effective Scoring Chances 97.6 97.4
% of Possessions with MIA BK
2 Point Attempt 46.5% 42.6%
3 Point Attempt 30.8% 34.5%
Player Fouled 17.2% 15.8%
Turnover 11.2% 12.3%
Opponent Steal 5.6% 6.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIA BK
Shot Blocked 5.4% 3.8%
Offensive Rebound 21.1% 22.5%