NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIA DEN
Points 105.1 110.4
Total Points   215.5
Points From 2-Pointers 54.8 61.4
Points From 3-Pointers 32.2 34.7
Points From Free Throws 18.1 14.3
Shooting MIA DEN
Field Goals Made 38.1 42.3
Field Goals Attempted 85.4 85.6
Field Goal % 44.6% 49.4%
2 Pointers Made 27.4 30.7
2 Pointers Attempted 54.5 52.8
2 Point Shooting % 50.3% 58.2%
3 Pointers Made 10.7 11.6
3 Pointers Attempted 31.0 32.9
3 Point Shooting % 34.6% 35.2%
Free Throws Made 18.1 14.3
Free Throws Attempted 22.1 18.4
Free Throw % 81.9% 77.5%
Ball Control MIA DEN
Rebounds 45.5 49.0
Rebounds - Defensive 35.2 38.6
Rebounds - Offensive 10.3 10.3
Turnovers 10.3 11.5
Blocked Shots 3.0 4.8
Steals 6.3 5.6
Fouls 15.4 16.4

Playing Style Advantage: Denver

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIA DEN
Total Possessions 97.9
Effective Scoring Chances 97.9 96.8
% of Possessions with MIA DEN
2 Point Attempt 49.4% 48.2%
3 Point Attempt 28.1% 30.0%
Player Fouled 16.8% 15.7%
Turnover 10.5% 11.7%
Opponent Steal 5.7% 6.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIA DEN
Shot Blocked 5.7% 3.5%
Offensive Rebound 21.1% 22.7%