NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIA DEN
Points 105.1 110.6
Total Points   215.7
Points From 2-Pointers 54.7 61.8
Points From 3-Pointers 32.2 34.5
Points From Free Throws 18.3 14.3
Shooting MIA DEN
Field Goals Made 38.1 42.4
Field Goals Attempted 85.5 85.8
Field Goal % 44.5% 49.4%
2 Pointers Made 27.3 30.9
2 Pointers Attempted 54.5 53.0
2 Point Shooting % 50.1% 58.2%
3 Pointers Made 10.7 11.5
3 Pointers Attempted 31.0 32.8
3 Point Shooting % 34.6% 35.1%
Free Throws Made 18.3 14.3
Free Throws Attempted 22.3 18.5
Free Throw % 81.9% 77.4%
Ball Control MIA DEN
Rebounds 45.6 49.2
Rebounds - Defensive 35.1 38.7
Rebounds - Offensive 10.4 10.5
Turnovers 10.3 11.5
Blocked Shots 2.9 4.9
Steals 6.3 5.5
Fouls 15.3 16.4

Playing Style Advantage: Denver

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIA DEN
Total Possessions 98.0
Effective Scoring Chances 98.1 97.0
% of Possessions with MIA DEN
2 Point Attempt 49.4% 48.4%
3 Point Attempt 28.1% 29.9%
Player Fouled 16.8% 15.7%
Turnover 10.5% 11.7%
Opponent Steal 5.6% 6.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIA DEN
Shot Blocked 5.8% 3.5%
Offensive Rebound 21.2% 23.0%