NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIA IND
Points 112.1 116.4
Total Points   228.5
Points From 2-Pointers 59.9 64.2
Points From 3-Pointers 31.2 37.8
Points From Free Throws 21.0 14.4
Shooting MIA IND
Field Goals Made 40.3 44.7
Field Goals Attempted 85.1 87.6
Field Goal % 47.4% 51.0%
2 Pointers Made 29.9 32.1
2 Pointers Attempted 56.2 52.4
2 Point Shooting % 53.3% 61.3%
3 Pointers Made 10.4 12.6
3 Pointers Attempted 28.8 35.2
3 Point Shooting % 36.0% 35.8%
Free Throws Made 21.0 14.4
Free Throws Attempted 25.7 18.6
Free Throw % 81.9% 77.5%
Ball Control MIA IND
Rebounds 45.8 46.1
Rebounds - Defensive 35.2 36.2
Rebounds - Offensive 10.6 9.9
Turnovers 11.5 11.7
Blocked Shots 3.1 5.3
Steals 6.2 5.8
Fouls 15.7 19.4

Playing Style Advantage: Indiana

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIA IND
Total Possessions 100.6
Effective Scoring Chances 99.7 98.7
% of Possessions with MIA IND
2 Point Attempt 49.6% 46.9%
3 Point Attempt 25.4% 31.5%
Player Fouled 19.2% 15.6%
Turnover 11.4% 11.7%
Opponent Steal 5.8% 6.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIA IND
Shot Blocked 6.1% 3.8%
Offensive Rebound 22.6% 21.9%