NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIA TOR
Points 115.8 107.7
Total Points   223.5
Points From 2-Pointers 59.2 58.2
Points From 3-Pointers 39.8 34.3
Points From Free Throws 16.8 15.2
Shooting MIA TOR
Field Goals Made 42.9 40.5
Field Goals Attempted 87.6 86.3
Field Goal % 48.9% 47.0%
2 Pointers Made 29.6 29.1
2 Pointers Attempted 52.1 51.7
2 Point Shooting % 56.8% 56.3%
3 Pointers Made 13.3 11.4
3 Pointers Attempted 35.5 34.6
3 Point Shooting % 37.4% 33.1%
Free Throws Made 16.8 15.2
Free Throws Attempted 20.6 19.9
Free Throw % 81.9% 76.6%
Ball Control MIA TOR
Rebounds 48.7 45.8
Rebounds - Defensive 37.7 35.5
Rebounds - Offensive 11.0 10.3
Turnovers 12.0 12.9
Blocked Shots 3.9 4.1
Steals 6.8 6.3
Fouls 15.3 17.0

Playing Style Advantage: Toronto

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIA TOR
Total Possessions 100.7
Effective Scoring Chances 99.7 98.1
% of Possessions with MIA TOR
2 Point Attempt 46.0% 45.9%
3 Point Attempt 31.3% 30.7%
Player Fouled 16.9% 15.2%
Turnover 11.9% 12.9%
Opponent Steal 6.2% 6.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIA TOR
Shot Blocked 4.8% 4.5%
Offensive Rebound 23.6% 21.5%