NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIA SA
Points 110.3 107.7
Total Points   218.0
Points From 2-Pointers 58.1 55.5
Points From 3-Pointers 35.8 38.1
Points From Free Throws 16.4 14.2
Shooting MIA SA
Field Goals Made 41.0 40.4
Field Goals Attempted 89.0 86.6
Field Goal % 46.0% 46.7%
2 Pointers Made 29.0 27.7
2 Pointers Attempted 56.4 49.0
2 Point Shooting % 51.5% 56.6%
3 Pointers Made 11.9 12.7
3 Pointers Attempted 32.6 37.5
3 Point Shooting % 36.6% 33.8%
Free Throws Made 16.4 14.2
Free Throws Attempted 20.0 18.2
Free Throw % 81.9% 77.6%
Ball Control MIA SA
Rebounds 48.1 49.5
Rebounds - Defensive 38.0 39.3
Rebounds - Offensive 10.0 10.2
Turnovers 11.4 13.8
Blocked Shots 3.0 5.6
Steals 8.2 5.7
Fouls 15.0 15.4

Playing Style Advantage: Miami

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIA SA
Total Possessions 101.4
Effective Scoring Chances 100.1 97.8
% of Possessions with MIA SA
2 Point Attempt 49.7% 43.5%
3 Point Attempt 28.7% 33.3%
Player Fouled 15.2% 14.8%
Turnover 11.2% 13.6%
Opponent Steal 5.6% 8.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIA SA
Shot Blocked 6.5% 3.5%
Offensive Rebound 20.3% 21.1%